News from C.A.R.

  • For release:
    September 26, 2017

    California pending home sales sputter for second straight month in August

    LOS ANGELES (Sept. 26) – Even with a strong performance in August closed escrow sales, California pending home sales stalled for the second consecutive month, which suggests a softening in the housing market in the upcoming months, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

    As August marks the end of the peak home-buying season, the housing market is showing signs of slowing as REALTORS® reported fewer floor calls, listing appointments, and client presentations. Open house traffic, however, remained strong in August, C.A.R.'s August Market Pulse Survey** found.

    Pending home sales data:

    • Based on signed contracts, year-over-year statewide pending home sales fell in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* declining 3.5 percent from 121.3 in August 2016 to 117.0 in August 2017. California pending home sales also declined down on a monthly basis, decreasing 2.0 percent from the July index of 119.4.

    • Pending home sales have declined on an annual basis for seven of the last eight months so far this year. After a solid run-up of pending sales growth in April, May, and July, continued housing inventory issues and affordability constraints may have pushed the market to a tipping point, suggesting the pace of growth will begin to slow in the fall.

    • All of the major regions recorded a decrease in pending sales from the previous year, with the San Francisco Bay Area experiencing the largest drop in pending sales, falling 11.6 percent on an annual basis. San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara and Monterey counties were all down in double-digits of 11.8 percent, 14.0 percent, 13.4 percent, and 12.5 percent, respectively.

    • Pending home sales were down 3.8 percent from the previous year in Southern California. Only Orange (1.8 percent) and San Bernardino (2.8 percent) counties posted a year-to-year increase. Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Diego counties registered lower annual pending sales of 1.7 percent, 10.3 percent, and 12.7 percent, respectively.

    • Pending sales in the Central Valley dipped 0.4 percent from the previous year, led by a 13.9 percent annual decrease in Sacramento County, while Kern County recorded a 13.4 percent decrease from last August.

    • C.A.R.'s Market Velocity Index – home sales relative to the number of new listings coming on line each month to replenish that sold inventory, or market indicator of future price appreciation – indicates that home prices should continue to stay strong as home sales continue to outstrip new listings, putting upward pressure on home prices through the fall.

    • The Market Velocity Index increased from 59 to 69, indicating that there were 69 percent more homes sold than there were new listings. In other words, the supply of homes available for sale continued to drop, which will make the remaining units more competitive as net supply has deteriorated by roughly 45,000 units this year.

    Year-to-Year Change in Pending Sales by County/Region

    County/Region/State Aug-17 Aug-16 Yearly % Change
    Kern 71.8 82.9 -13.4%
    Los Angeles 88.5 90.0 -1.7%
    Orange 74.7 73.3 1.8%
    Riverside 52.8 58.8 -10.3%
    San Diego 129.8 148.8 -12.7%
    San Bernardino 78.3 76.2 2.8%
    Monterey 59.4 67.9 -12.5%
    Sacramento 69.5 80.7 -13.9%
    San Francisco 78.0 88.4 -11.8%
    San Mateo 86.4 100.4 -14.0%
    Santa Clara 87.4 101.0 -13.4%
    Santa Cruz 115.1 130.9 -12.1%
    San Francisco Bay Area 131.8 149.2 -11.6%
    Southern California 99.5 103.4 -3.8%
    Central Valley 104.8 105.2 -0.4%
    California (SA)* 117.0 121.3 -3.5%

    *Seasonally adjusted

    August REALTOR® Market Pulse Survey**:

    • The share of homes selling above asking price increased from 29 percent a year ago to 31 percent in August, while the share of properties selling below asking price fell from 41 percent to 37 percent. The remaining 32 percent sold at asking price, up from 30 percent in August 2016.

    • For homes that sold above asking price, the premium paid over asking price rose from 10 percent in August 2016 to 12 percent in August 2017.

    • The 36 percent of homes that sold below asking price sold for an average of 12 percent below asking price in August, unchanged from a year ago.

    • About two-thirds (60 percent) of properties sold in August received multiple offers, down from 62 percent in August 2016, and the number of offers received was slightly down at 2.7 offers.

    • The share of properties receiving three or more offers in August was 38 percent, compared to 42 percent a year ago.

    • Market competitiveness increased the most in homes priced $300,000-$399,999 and $1 million-$1,999,999 compared with last year, with 28 percent of properties receiving three or more offers up from 38 percent and up from 44 percent to 55 percent, respectively.

    • Listing prices are more in line with the market as the proportion of homes that had listing price reductions decreased from 31 percent a year ago to 23 percent in August.

    • Thirty-five percent of REALTORS® cited a lack of available homes for sale as their top concern, up significantly from 19 percent in August 2016. Declining housing affordability/high interest rates concerned 27 percent of REALTORS®, while inflated home prices/housing bubble was cited by 23 percent of REALTORS®. A slowdown in economic growth, lending and financing, and policy and regulations rounded out REALTORS®' remaining biggest concerns.

    • REALTORS®' expectations of market conditions over the next year improved from 51 a year ago to 56 in August and is still in positive territory.

    Graphics (click links to open):

    YTY change in pending home sales by region.
    Pending sales vs. closed escrow sales.
    Fewer properties selling below asking price.
    Multiple offers decline.
    Market competitiveness by price segment.
    Market Velocity – indicator of future price appreciation.

    *Note: C.A.R.'s pending sales information is generated from a survey of more than 70 associations of REALTORS® and MLSs throughout the state. Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, offering solid information on future changes in the direction of the market. A sale is listed as pending after a seller has accepted a sales contract on a property. The majority of pending home sales usually become closed sales transactions one to two months later. The year 2008 was used as the benchmark for the Pending Homes Sales Index. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2008.

    **C.A.R.'s Market Pulse Survey is a monthly online survey sent to more than 10,000 California REALTORS® to measure data about their last closed transaction and sentiment about business activity in their market area for the previous month. More than 400 REALTORS® responded.
    Leading the way...® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 190,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

    # # #


    Created: 10/19/2017 2:06:05 AM
  • For release:
    September 15, 2017

    California REALTORS® applaud advancement of state housing bills package

    LOS ANGELES (Sept. 15) – The CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) today issued the following statement in response to the passage of a package of housing bills that will help address the state's housing affordability crisis:

    "REALTORS® throughout the state applaud the California Legislature for taking action to address the state's historic housing supply crisis. These are complex issues that required significant negotiation and ultimately, compromise on all sides," said C.A.R. President Geoff McIntosh.

    "The result is a package of bills that, with Gov. Brown's signature, will be a great foundation for continued action at the state and local levels to meet California's housing needs. We must always recognize that until people have the ability and opportunity to buy or rent a home in California, our work is not done. Homeownership is the vehicle for individual prosperity that can help the state fulfill its economic potential."

    "The California Association of REALTORS®, representing more than 190,000 brokers and agents across the Golden State, looks forward to continued collaboration with the governor and Legislature."

    Leading the way?® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 190,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

    Created: 10/19/2017 2:06:05 AM
  • LOS ANGELES (Sept. 27) – The CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) today issued the following statement in response to Republican leaders' tax reform plan announced today:

    "The tax reform proposed by the Republican leadership will eliminate the incentive for people to buy homes, shrink the middle class, and raise taxes on hundreds of thousands of California homeowners," said C.A.R. President Geoff McIntosh. "The doubling of the standard deduction, coupled with the elimination of state and local tax deductions, such as property taxes, will adversely impact California and its housing market. The average California homebuyer could end up paying $3,000 more a year in taxes under today's proposal."

    "Homeownership has and continues to be the best way for families to grow wealth and increase the middle class. Congress should look at ways to incentivize and increase homeownership rates, not increase taxes on families wanting to buy a home."

    "Any change that would make homebuying less attractive will be detrimental to the housing industry and the nation's economy because of the 2.5 million private-sector jobs created by the industry in an average year," said McIntosh.
    Leading the way?® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 190,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

    Created: 10/19/2017 2:06:05 AM
  • For release:
    Oct. 18, 2017

    California housing market eases into fall homebuying season

    - Existing, single-family home sales totaled 436,920 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 2.2 percent from August and 1.7 percent from September 2016.
    - September's statewide median home price was $555,410, down 1.8 percent from August and up 7.5 percent from September 2016.
    - Statewide active listings continued to decline in September, dropping 11.2 percent from a year ago.

    LOS ANGELES (Oct. 18) – California's housing market eased into the fall homebuying season as seasonally adjusted sales rose both month-to-month and year-to-year in September, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.
    Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California remained above the 400,000 benchmark for the past 18 months and totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 436,920 units in September, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2017 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

    The September sales figure was up 2.2 percent from the 427,630 level in August and up 1.7 percent compared with home sales in September 2016 of a revised 429,760. While year-to-date sales are running 2.6 percent ahead of last year's pace, that margin has been eroding since the first quarter.

    "While it's encouraging that statewide home sales improved both monthly and annually, the year-over-year sales rate is losing steam, reflecting the persistent shortage of homes for sale and an easing of concern over a surge in mortgage rates," said C.A.R. President Geoff McIntosh. "Additionally, for the areas that have been affected by the recent wildfires, we anticipate sales will pull back in those regions as damages are assessed and replacement efforts are coordinated."

    After reaching its highest level in a decade in August, the statewide median price slipped in September but remained above the $500,000 mark for the seventh straight month. The $565,330 August median price dropped 1.8 percent to $555,410 in September but climbed 7.5 percent from the revised $516,450 recorded in September 2016. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling, as well as a general change in values.

    "The statewide median price rose at the fastest annual pace since February 2017 as the housing supply shortage continued to dictate the market, taking a toll on home sales and affordability," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie-Appleton-Young. "The tight inventory situation is particularly acute in the Bay Area region, which saw double-digit price increases in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, and Santa Clara counties, while sales fell markedly from the previous year in six of the nine Bay Area counties."

    Other key points from C.A.R.'s September 2017 resale housing report include:

    • All of the major regions experienced month-to-month and annual sales declines, with sales in the San Francisco Bay Area declining 4.2 percent from a year ago, the Inland Empire falling 4.0 percent, and the Los Angeles metro region decreasing 2.5 percent from September 2016.

    • In general, home prices across the state continued to grow in September. Forty-one of the 51 reported counties recorded a year-over-year price increase, with 20 of them growing at double-digit rates.

    • Statewide active listings continued to decline in September, dropping 11.2 percent from a year ago. Since the beginning of the year, active listings have declined by more than 10 percent every month, and the number of available listings for sale has trended downward for more than two years.

    • With strong sales growth and little new inventory to replenish the housing supply, C.A.R.'s Unsold Inventory Index fell from 3.5 months in September 2016 to 3.2 months in September 2017. The index measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. The index stood at 2.9 months in August.

    • Thirty-six of 51 counties experienced a decline in housing inventory from last year. While every single county in the Southern California region had a reduction in the unsold inventory index from the previous year in September, the Bay Area remained the region with the tightest housing supply. Six of the nine Bay Area counties had less than three months of inventory in September, and of the six, two had less than a two months' supply.

    • The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home in September was 20 days compared with 18 days in August and 28 days in September 2016.

    • C.A.R.'s sales price-to-list price ratio* was 99.1 percent statewide in September, 99.5 percent in August, and 98.6 percent in September 2016. At the county level, San Francisco had the highest ratio at 116.6 percent and Mariposa had the lowest at 92.5 percent.

    • The average price per square foot** for an existing, single-family home statewide was $270 in September, $268 in August, and $254 in September 2016.

    • San Mateo had the highest price per square foot in September at $883/sq. ft., followed by San Francisco ($875/sq. ft.), and Santa Clara ($687/sq. ft.). Counties with the lowest price per square foot in September included Lassen ($118/sq. ft.), Kings ($132/sq. ft.), and Kern ($136/sq. ft.).

    • Mortgage rates declined further in September as 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 3.81 percent in September, down from 3.88 percent in August but was up from 3.46 percent in September 2016, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable-rate mortgage interest rate edged up in September to an average of 3.16 percent from 3.15 percent in August but was up from 2.74 percent in September 2016.

    Graphics (click links to open):

    • September sales at-a-glance infographic.
    Calif. historical existing home sales.
    Calif. historical median home price.
    Supply constraint most obvious at lower end.
    Calif. price per square foot at recent peak.
    Housing inventory down across all regions.

    Note: The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state, and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower-end or the upper-end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

    *Sales-to-list price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its last list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.
    **Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 39 counties.

    Leading the way?® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 190,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

    # # #

    September 2017 County Sales and Price Activity
    (Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

    September-17 Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes Sales
    State/Region/County Sep-17 Aug-17 Sep-16 Price MTM% Chg Price YTY% Chg Sales MTM% Chg Sales YTY% Chg
    CA SFH (SAAR) $555,410 $565,330 $516,450 R -1.8% 7.5% 2.2% 1.7%
    CA Condo/Townhomes $450,400 $446,760 $415,540 R 0.8% 8.4% -13.4% -4.2%
    Los Angeles Metro Area $504,990 $499,970 $463,600 R 1.0% 8.9% -8.8% -2.5%
    Inland Empire $343,260 $341,340 $319,380 0.6% 7.5% -13.0% -4.0%
    S.F. Bay Area $852,230 $856,200 R $762,810 R -0.5% 11.7% -14.2% -4.2%
    S.F. Bay Area Sep-17 Aug-17 Sep-16 Price MTM% Chg Price YTY% Chg Sales MTM% Chg Sales YTY% Chg
    Alameda $853,000 $867,500 $760,000 R -1.7% 12.2% -20.5% -15.0%
    Contra-Costa $605,000 $627,860 $549,900 R -3.6% 10.0% -18.3% -5.5%
    Marin $1,250,000 $1,207,120 $1,165,000 3.6% 7.3% -2.7% 23.8%
    Napa $632,500 $654,000 $650,000 -3.3% -2.7% 0.0% -12.4%
    San Francisco $1,350,000 $1,380,000 $1,218,750 -2.2% 10.8% -19.1% 0.0%
    San Mateo $1,400,500 $1,375,000 $1,290,000 1.9% 8.6% -5.0% -0.3%
    Santa Clara $1,180,000 $1,150,000 $1,000,000 2.6% 18.0% -7.7% 1.9%
    Solano $422,500 $410,000 $389,500 3.0% 8.5% -15.6% -6.3%
    Sonoma $620,000 $625,500 $590,000 -0.9% 5.1% -16.4% -0.5%
    Southern California Sep-17 Aug-17 Sep-16 Price MTM% Chg Price YTY% Chg Sales MTM% Chg Sales YTY% Chg
    Los Angeles $606,110 $570,720 R $550,700 R 6.2% 10.1% -4.6% -4.1%
    Orange $799,000 $789,000 $739,000 1.3% 8.1% -7.9% 4.1%
    Riverside $385,700 $388,500 $352,250 -0.7% 9.5% -13.7% -9.2%
    San Bernardino $279,000 $269,950 $251,750 R 3.4% 10.8% -12.1% 4.4%
    San Diego $605,000 $605,000 $569,000 0.0% 6.3% -16.7% -4.3%
    Ventura $609,000 $640,000 $583,800 R -4.8% 4.3% -11.6% 0.0%
    Central Coast Sep-17 Aug-17 Sep-16 Price MTM% Chg Price YTY% Chg Sales MTM% Chg Sales YTY% Chg
    Monterey $569,900 $580,500 $566,500 R -1.8% 0.6% -13.9% -7.3%
    San Luis Obispo $607,500 $599,000 $574,750 1.4% 5.7% -6.4% -6.1%
    Santa Barbara $707,000 $631,000 $732,500 12.0% -3.5% -15.1% 13.7%
    Santa Cruz $845,000 $825,000 $774,500 2.4% 9.1% 1.1% 8.5%
    Central Valley Sep-17 Aug-17 Sep-16 Price MTM% Chg Price YTY% Chg Sales MTM% Chg Sales YTY% Chg
    Fresno $260,000 $259,000 $240,000 0.4% 8.3% -18.5% -0.4%
    Glenn $207,500 $225,000 $220,500 -7.8% -5.9% 10.0% 4.8%
    Kern $234,700 $235,100 $215,000 -0.2% 9.2% -8.6% -6.8%
    Kings $223,000 $225,000 $197,000 -0.9% 13.2% -27.0% -11.0%
    Madera $291,500 $263,500 $240,000 10.6% 21.5% -10.8% -20.5%
    Merced $260,000 $250,000 $214,000 4.0% 21.5% -13.7% 13.0%
    Placer $450,000 $462,000 $430,240 -2.6% 4.6% -16.9% -2.0%
    Sacramento $347,750 $348,000 $317,500 -0.1% 9.5% -10.3% -7.0%
    San Benito $508,500 $600,000 $527,500 -15.3% -3.6% -40.3% -13.0%
    San Joaquin $355,000 $355,000 $322,000 0.0% 10.2% -7.9% 9.4%
    Stanislaus $295,000 $294,290 $270,000 0.2% 9.3% -8.5% 13.6%
    Tulare $229,950 $224,900 $209,900 2.2% 9.6% -4.1% 13.0%
    Other Calif. Counties Sep-17 Aug-17 Sep-16 Price MTM% Chg Price YTY% Chg Sales MTM% Chg Sales YTY% Chg
    Amador $315,000 $334,500 $243,500 -5.8% 29.4% 12.5% 17.4%
    Butte $311,900 $291,000 $275,000 7.2% 13.4% -26.0% -11.2%
    Calaveras $340,000 $345,000 $285,000 -1.4% 19.3% -23.0% -4.0%
    Del Norte $224,300 $214,950 $239,500 4.3% -6.3% -30.8% 80.0%
    El Dorado $449,950 $485,000 $419,000 -7.2% 7.4% -14.4% 6.5%
    Humboldt $325,000 $316,750 $290,000 2.6% 12.1% -0.8% 1.7%
    Lake $234,250 $241,500 $220,000 -3.0% 6.5% -10.4% 36.5%
    Lassen $145,500 $215,000 $161,090 -32.3% -9.7% 12.0% -20.0%
    Mariposa $299,000 $280,000 $332,500 6.8% -10.1% -56.3% 0.0%
    Mendocino $419,000 $402,500 $370,000 4.1% 13.2% 16.7% 18.9%
    Mono $632,500 $386,500 $465,000 63.6% 36.0% 83.3% 0.0%
    Nevada $410,000 $375,000 $348,700 9.3% 17.6% -17.1% -16.4%
    Plumas $275,000 $325,000 $278,500 -15.4% -1.3% -19.6% 7.9%
    Shasta $244,900 $252,450 $239,000 -3.0% 2.5% -8.0% 8.2%
    Siskiyou $187,500 $212,000 $192,000 -11.6% -2.3% 6.5% -15.5%
    Sutter $275,000 $289,000 $247,500 -4.8% 11.1% -13.4% 18.3%
    Tehama $191,750 $225,000 $219,000 -14.8% -12.4% -22.0% -8.6%
    Tuolumne $282,000 $292,000 $242,500 -3.4% 16.3% -19.6% 22.4%
    Yolo $432,000 $445,000 $407,000 -2.9% 6.1% -12.6% 5.6%
    Yuba $274,900 $265,000 $245,000 3.7% 12.2% -2.5% -4.8%

    r = revised
    NA = not available


    September 2017 County Unsold Inventory and Time on Market
    (Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

    September-17 Unsold Inventory Index Median Time on Market
    State/Region/County Sep-17 Aug-17 Sep-16 Sep-17 Aug-17 Sep-16
    CA SFH (SAAR) 3.2 2.9 3.5 R 20.0 18.0 28.0 R
    CA Condo/Townhomes 2.4 2.2 2.8 R 15.0 14.0 25.0 R
    Los Angeles Metro Area 3.4 3.1 3.7 R 24.0 22.0 41.0 R
    Inland Empire 3.7 3.3 4.0 R 27.0 25.0 42.0 R
    S.F. Bay Area 2.2 1.9 2.6 R 16.0 15.0 21.0 R
    S.F. Bay Area
    Alameda 2.1 1.6 2.1 13.0 13.0 15.0 R
    Contra Costa 2.2 1.9 2.4 R 14.0 13.0 16.0 R
    Marin 3.4 3.0 4.3 38.0 39.0 35.0 R
    Napa 4.6 4.6 4.4 49.5 49.5 53.0 R
    San Francisco 2.6 1.7 3.2 15.0 15.0 26.0 R
    San Mateo 1.9 1.7 2.5 11.0 11.0 14.0 R
    Santa Clara 1.4 1.5 2.4 10.0 9.5 16.0 R
    Solano 2.4 2.2 3.0 34.0 34.0 41.0 R
    Sonoma 3.0 2.6 3.0 41.0 37.0 43.0 R
    Southern California
    Los Angeles 3.1 2.8 3.4 R 19.0 18.0 34.0 R
    Orange 3.1 3.1 3.8 26.0 22.0 46.0 R
    Riverside 3.7 3.2 4.1 26.0 26.0 43.0 R
    San Bernardino 3.6 3.4 3.9 27.0 24.0 40.0 R
    San Diego 3.0 2.6 3.4 16.0 14.0 19.0 R
    Ventura 4.7 4.4 4.8 R 50.0 46.0 55.0 R
    Central Coast
    Monterey 4.7 4.2 4.7 27.0 26.0 26.0 R
    San Luis Obispo 3.9 3.9 4.0 32.0 23.0 31.0 R
    Santa Barbara 4.1 3.7 4.9 31.0 26.0 31.5 R
    Santa Cruz 3.4 3.3 3.3 18.0 20.0 22.0 R
    Central Valley
    Fresno 3.5 2.9 3.7 14.0 16.0 20.0 R
    Glenn 3.5 4.2 4.3 30.5 47.5 43.0 R
    Kern 3.5 3.3 3.7 22.0 19.0 24.5 R
    Kings 3.3 2.4 3.4 23.0 21.0 15.0 R
    Madera 5.6 4.9 4.7 34.5 33.0 54.0 R
    Merced 2.8 2.6 2.9 14.0 15.0 31.0 R
    Placer 2.8 2.5 2.9 17.0 14.0 19.0 R
    Sacramento 2.6 2.4 2.6 13.0 11.0 13.0 R
    San Benito 4.5 2.6 4.2 13.0 28.0 27.5 R
    San Joaquin 2.6 2.5 3.2 16.0 14.0 14.0 R
    Stanislaus 2.6 2.4 3.5 18.0 14.0 19.0 R
    Tulare 3.7 3.7 3.9 20.0 23.0 28.0 R
    Other Counties in California
    Amador 4.9 6.0 5.3 46.0 39.0 46.0 R
    Butte 3.4 2.5 3.7 15.0 17.5 23.5 R
    Calaveras 6.2 4.8 5.4 41.0 27.5 56.0 R
    Del Norte 9.2 7.2 16.1 71.0 90.5 94.0 R
    El Dorado 3.9 3.5 4.0 41.0 38.0 48.0 R
    Humboldt 4.7 4.9 3.6 34.0 19.0 20.0 R
    Lake 5.4 5.1 7.3 R 47.0 24.0 70.0 R
    Lassen 6.8 8.1 0.0 89.5 91.0 106.0
    Mariposa 9.3 4.8 13.0 45.0 66.5 92.0 R
    Mendocino 5.4 6.6 7.0 53.0 66.0 80.0 R
    Mono 4.5 9.2 6.4 88.0 74.0 131.5 R
    Nevada 4.7 3.9 3.7 40.0 19.0 31.0 R
    Plumas 9.0 8.0 10.7 114.0 94.0 102.0
    Shasta 4.2 4.1 4.7 27.0 21.0 40.0 R
    Siskiyou 6.5 6.9 5.0 45.0 52.0 34.0 R
    Sutter 3.1 2.8 3.3 19.5 21.0 19.0 R
    Tehama 7.6 6.4 6.8 55.0 60.0 53.0 R
    Tuolumne 5.0 4.4 6.4 42.0 29.0 47.0 R
    Yolo 2.3 2.4 2.8 17.5 13.5 15.0 R
    Yuba 3.0 3.0 2.7 14.0 13.0 15.0 R

    r = revised
    NA = not available

    Created: 10/19/2017 2:06:05 AM
  • FOR RELEASE at 8 a.m., Pacific
    October 12, 2017

    C.A.R. releases its 2018 California Housing Market Forecast

    Home sales and median price to increase in 2018 but at a slower pace

    LOS ANGELES (Oct. 12) – With the economy expected to continue growing, housing demand should remain strong and incrementally boost California's housing market in 2018, though a shortage of available homes for sale and affordability constraints will be a challenge, according to the "2018 California Housing Market Forecast," released today by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®' (C.A.R.) .

    The C.A.R. forecast sees a modest gain in existing single-family home sales of 1.0 percent next year to reach 426,200 units, up slightly from the projected 2017 sales figure of 421,900. The 2017 figure is 1.3 percent higher compared with the 416,700 pace of homes sold in 2016.

    "Solid job growth and favorable interest rates will drive a strong demand for housing next year," said C.A.R. President Geoff McIntosh. "However, a persistent shortage of homes for sale and increasing home prices will dictate the market as housing affordability diminishes for buyers struggling to get into the market."

    C.A.R.'s forecast projects growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product of 2.3 percent in 2018, after a projected gain of 2.1 percent in 2017. With California's nonfarm job growth at 1.2 percent, down from a projected 1.6 percent in 2017, the state's unemployment rate will dip to 4.6 percent in 2018 compared with 4.8 percent in 2017 and 5.5 percent in 2016.

    The average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will increase slightly to 4.3 percent in 2018, up from 4.0 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2016, but will still remain low by historical standards.

    The California median home price is forecast to increase 4.2 percent to $561,000 in 2018, following a projected 7.2 percent increase in 2017 to $538,500.

    "This year's housing market can be told as a tale of two markets – the inventory constrained lower end and the upper end that's non-inventory constrained," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "This trend is likely to continue into 2018 as active listings have declined across all price ranges for the past two years, but is most obvious at the lower end."

    "With tight inventory being the new 'norm' for the past few years and at least the upcoming year, we'll continue to see fierce competition driving up prices, leading to lower affordability and weaker sales growth."

    2018 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017p

    2018f

    SFH Resales (000s)

    439.8

    414.9

    382.7

    409.4

    416.7

    421.9

    426.2

    % Change

    4.1%

    -5.9%

    -7.8%

    7.0%

    1.8%

    1.3%

    1.0%

    Median Price ($000s)

    $319.3

    $407.2

    $446.9

    $476.3

    $502.3

    $538.5

    $561.0

    % Change

    11.6%

    27.5%

    9.8%

    6.6%

    5.4%

    7.2%

    4.2%

    Housing Affordability Index

    51%

    36%

    30%

    31%

    31%

    29%

    26%

    30-Yr FRM

    3.7%

    4.0%

    4.2%

    3.9%

    3.6%

    4.0%

    4.3%

    p = projected
    f = forecast


    Appleton-Young will present an expanded forecast at a luncheon Thursday afternoon during CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2017, running Oct. 10-12 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, Calif. The trade show attracts nearly 6,000 attendees and is the largest state real estate trade show in the nation. The remaining highlights of CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2017 include:

    Thursday, Oct. 12

    10:45 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.
    Teamwork Makes the Dream Work - Top Teams Panel

    Real estate teams are increasingly popular in California. What are the top secrets behind top teams? How do the top teams make it work? What are the biggest challenges and benefits of having a team? How do they create consistency, culture, and motivation? How do teams impact the client experience? Hear the answers from top producing teams as they dish out key advice and takeaways attendees can apply to build their teams and make them thrive.

    10:45 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.
    Communication Across Cultures

    REALTORS® will learn how to handle cultural differences in a transaction, how each culture communicates, and understand different customs, which can mean the difference between landing or losing a listing.

    12 noon – 1:30 p.m.

    Thursday Lunch: "2018 Housing Market Forecast with Leslie Appleton-Young"

    C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young will share valuable information and insight about next year's California housing market, including projected home sales, median prices, housing affordability, inventory supply, and mortgage rates and availability. (Ticketed event)

    2 p.m. – 2:45 p.m.

    Has it Happened to You? Don't Be a Victim of Cybercrime

    As part of a REALTOR®'s professional duties, their clients trust them with safekeeping important information and documents. Mobile tools and online platforms are being used often in business and in transactions, increasing the risk of cybercrime for REALTORS® and their clients. Data hacking, identity theft and fraud are more prevalent than ever. Learn how to be proactive and protect against cybercrime. Learn what tools and programs will keep files secure and how to respond in the event of a hack, virus, or identity theft.


    Journalists who would like to attend CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2017, please email lotusl@car.org or call (213) 739-8304. For more information on CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2017, visit expo.car.org .


    Leading the way ... ®
    in real estate news and information for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® ( www.car.org ) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with more than 190,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

    # # #

    Created: 10/19/2017 2:06:05 AM